Rebordering Britain & Britons after Brexit
Making sense of Brexit losses: An in-depth review of macroeconomic studies
Almost all economic assessments of Brexit conclude that there would be significant losses for both the UK and the EU. This paper examines the driving forces behind these results. We consider the strong economic relationships between the UK and EU both at the sectoral and macroeconomic levels that are at risk from Brexit. We review fifteen studies that explore various Brexit scenarios (hard and soft) and explain why their different methodologies and assumptions yield different degrees of economic damage. Our review concludes that GDP losses for the UK from a hard Brexit range from 1.6% to 7.8%, while a soft Brexit would moderate the losses by roughly half. We also find that potential UK trade agreements with third countries could partially compensate for significant Brexit losses.
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A computable general equilibrium analysis of Brexit: Barriers to trade and immigration restrictions
This paper estimates the economic effects of different types of restrictions on trade and immigration in the United Kingdom after Brexit. Regarding trade restrictions, we focus on UK-EU increases in tariffs and non-tariff barriers.
The economic impact of potential migration policies in the UK after Brexit
The bulk of studies which attempt to quantify the effects of Brexit focus on trade issues; however, very few of them have analysed migration. In this paper, we analyse the impact of several migration policies on GDP, GDP per capita, wages, national income and sectoral production in the UK…
Impact of border barriers, returning migrants, and trade diversion in Brexit: Firm exit and loss of variety
We investigate the impact of Brexit (the UK's planned withdrawal from the European Union) using computable general equilibrium models featuring conventional constant returns-to-scale (CRS) and increasing returns-to-scale (IRS) technology and firm heterogeneity, a la Melitz.
The welfare impact of migration with endogenous cross-border movement: An application to the European Union
In this paper, I examine the welfare impact of migration in a general equilibrium model with endogenous worker location choice. My framework incorporates labor productivity differences across countries, worker heterogeneity in productivity across skill and nativity types…