The impact of Brexit on international students' return intentions

This paper studies the causal impact of Brexit on the post-graduation mobility decisions of EU students in the UK. We exploit the British government's formal withdrawal notification under Article 50 as a natural experiment. Using data from a survey of graduating international students administered before and after the triggering of Article 50, we find that EU students are significantly more likely than non-EU students to plan on leaving the UK upon graduation immediately after the announcement. Results are driven by students from the new EU countries and students from the EU14 countries who do not have firm migration plans.